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Showing posts from August, 2018

Tesla Value Analysis (aka, why I'm short)

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The day after the now infamous "Funding Secured" tweet, I took a short position in Tesla. I had been planning a short position for some time, though I thought the stock might reach $400, and intended to await that before establishing the position. The fallout I anticipated after the tweet caused me to advance my timeline. It seemed apparent that TSLA may never reach $400.  At any rate, my analysis of the financials has led me to conclude that the company will face a cash crisis in the fourth quarter of 2018 and will require additional funding. If the funding takes the form of bonds, the interest rate will be high and the money expensive. If it takes the form of additional equity issues, it will dilute current shares and decrease the price. Additionally, requiring more capital will reflect poorly on CEO Elon Musk and the Board of Directors, and will renew discussions of viability of the company, potentially further reducing the share price. Here are some numbers (sorry I can...
Musk: Out of the Frying Pan, into the Fire "Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding Secured," tweeted vanguard CEO of Tesla, Elon Musk, on August 7th at 12:48PM Eastern. All hell broke loose. People bought, people sold, people shorted. The stock was halted an hour and twenty minutes later. In that time, the stock increased twenty-nine Dollars per share. It ended the day eleven percent higher, an increase of nearly six billion Dollars in shareholder value.  In the subsequent two days, the stock gave back most of that. The SEC announced they had some questions on August 8th.  Six of the Tesla Board members subsequently issued the following statement: "Last week, Elon opened a discussion with the board about taking the company private. This included discussion as to how being private could better serve Tesla’s long-term interests, and also addressed the funding for this to occur. The board has met several times over the last week and is taking the ap...